How are MLS predictions generated?

VARiM uses the Poisson distribution model — a statistical approach that analyses each team's historical goal-scoring and conceding rates to calculate the probability of every possible scoreline in a MLS match.

Are the MLS predictions free?

Yes, all MLS predictions on VARiM are completely free. You can also track prediction accuracy over time at varim.net/predictions/accuracy/.

What does the "value edge" percentage mean?

Value edge shows how much better our model's implied probability is compared to the bookmaker's implied probability. A positive value edge means the bet is statistically underpriced by the market.

How often are MLS predictions updated?

Predictions are refreshed automatically as new fixtures are scheduled. For upcoming matches the model updates daily; for today's matches predictions lock at kick-off time.